Supervised Machine Learning Approach to Identify Early Predictors of Poor Outcome in Patients with COVID-19 Presenting to a Large Quaternary Care Hospital in New York City.

BACKGROUND: The progression of clinical manifestations in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) highlights the need to account for symptom duration at the time of hospital presentation in decision-making algorithms. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control analysis of 4103 adult patients with COVID-19 and at least 28 days of follow-up who presented to a New York City medical center. Multivariable logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to identify predictors of poor outcome. RESULTS: Patients presenting to the hospital earlier in their disease course were older, had more comorbidities, and a greater proportion decompensated (<4 days, 41%; 4-8 days, 31%; >8 days, 26%). The first recorded oxygen delivery method was the most important predictor of decompensation overall in CART analysis. In patients with symptoms for <4, 4-8, and >8 days, requiring at least non-rebreather, age ≥ 63 years, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio ≥ 5.1; requiring at least non-rebreather, IL-6 ≥ 24.7 pg/mL, and D-dimer ≥ 2.4 µg/mL; and IL-6 ≥ 64.3 pg/mL, requiring non-rebreather, and CRP ≥ 152.5 mg/mL in predictive models were independently associated with poor outcome, respectively. CONCLUSION: Symptom duration in tandem with initial clinical and laboratory markers can be used to identify patients with COVID-19 at increased risk for poor outcomes.

Cardiac Corrected QT Interval Changes Among Patients Treated for COVID-19 Infection During the Early Phase of the Pandemic.

Importance: Critical illness, a marked inflammatory response, and viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 may prolong corrected QT interval (QTc). Objective: To evaluate baseline QTc interval on 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) and ensuing changes among patients with and without COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included 3050 patients aged 18 years and older who underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing and had ECGs at Columbia University Irving Medical Center from March 1 through May 1, 2020. Patients were analyzed by treatment group over 5 days, as follows: hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin, hydroxychloroquine alone, azithromycin alone, and neither hydroxychloroquine nor azithromycin. ECGs were manually analyzed by electrophysiologists masked to COVID-19 status. Multivariable modeling evaluated clinical associations with QTc prolongation from baseline. Exposures: COVID-19, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean QTc prolongation, percentage of patients with QTc of 500 milliseconds or greater. Results: A total of 965 patients had more than 2 ECGs and were included in the study, with 561 (58.1%) men, 198 (26.2%) Black patients, and 191 (19.8%) aged 80 years and older. There were 733 patients (76.0%) with COVID-19 and 232 patients (24.0%) without COVID-19. COVID-19 infection was associated with significant mean QTc prolongation from baseline by both 5-day and 2-day multivariable models (5-day, patients with COVID-19: 20.81 [95% CI, 15.29 to 26.33] milliseconds; P < .001; patients without COVID-19: -2.01 [95% CI, -17.31 to 21.32] milliseconds; P = .93; 2-day, patients with COVID-19: 17.40 [95% CI, 12.65 to 22.16] milliseconds; P < .001; patients without COVID-19: 0.11 [95% CI, -12.60 to 12.81] milliseconds; P = .99). COVID-19 infection was independently associated with a modeled mean 27.32 (95% CI, 4.63-43.21) millisecond increase in QTc at 5 days compared with COVID-19-negative status (mean QTc, with COVID-19: 450.45 [95% CI, 441.6 to 459.3] milliseconds; without COVID-19: 423.13 [95% CI, 403.25 to 443.01] milliseconds; P = .01). More patients with COVID-19 not receiving hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin had QTc of 500 milliseconds or greater compared with patients without COVID-19 (34 of 136 [25.0%] vs 17 of 158 [10.8%], P = .002). Multivariable analysis revealed that age 80 years and older compared with those younger than 50 years (mean difference in QTc, 11.91 [SE, 4.69; 95% CI, 2.73 to 21.09]; P = .01), severe chronic kidney disease compared with no chronic kidney disease (mean difference in QTc, 12.20 [SE, 5.26; 95% CI, 1.89 to 22.51; P = .02]), elevated high-sensitivity troponin levels (mean difference in QTc, 5.05 [SE, 1.19; 95% CI, 2.72 to 7.38]; P < .001), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels (mean difference in QTc, 5.31 [SE, 2.68; 95% CI, 0.06 to 10.57]; P = .04) were associated with QTc prolongation. Torsades de pointes occurred in 1 patient (0.1%) with COVID-19. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, COVID-19 infection was independently associated with significant mean QTc prolongation at days 5 and 2 of hospitalization compared with day 0. More patients with COVID-19 had QTc of 500 milliseconds or greater compared with patients without COVID-19.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes in People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Hospitalized for Coronavirus Disease 2019.

We describe the characteristics of 31 people living with human immunodeficiency virus hospitalized for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. All patients were on antiretroviral therapy and virologically suppressed at the time of admission. Clinical course and outcomes were similar to those reported in other hospitalized cohorts.

Vitamin D Status and COVID-19 Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

Context: Populations severely affected by COVID-19 are also at risk for vitamin D deficiency. Common risk factors include older age, chronic illness, obesity, and non-Caucasian race. Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with risk for respiratory infections and failure, susceptibility and response to therapy for enveloped virus infection, and immune-mediated inflammatory reaction.Objective: To test the hypothesis that 25-hydroxyvitamin D[25(OH)D] deficiency is a risk factor for severity of COVID-19 respiratory and inflammatory complications.Design: We examined the relationship between prehospitalization 25(OH)D levels (obtained 1-365 days prior to admission) and COVID-19 clinical outcomes in 700 COVID-19 positive hospitalized patients.Primary Outcomes: Discharge status, mortality, length of stay, intubation status, renal replacement.Secondary Outcomes: Inflammatory markers.Results: 25(OH)D levels were available in 93 patients [25(OH)D:25(IQR:17-33)ng/mL]. Compared to those without 25(OH)D levels, those with measurements did not differ in age, BMI or distribution of sex and race, but were more likely to have comorbidities. Those with 25(OH)D < 20 ng/mL (n = 35) did not differ from those with 25(OH)D ≥ 20 ng/mL in terms of age, sex, race, BMI, or comorbidities. Low 25(OH)D tended to be associated with younger age and lower frequency of preexisting pulmonary disease. There were no significant between-group differences in any outcome. Results were similar in those ≥50 years, in male/female-only cohorts, and when differing 25(OH)D thresholds were used (<15 ng/mL and <30 ng/mL). There was no relationship between 25(OH)D as a continuous variable and any outcome, even after controlling for age and pulmonary disease.Conclusions: These preliminary data do not support a relationship between prehospitalization vitamin D status and COVID-19 clinical outcomes.

Acute Liver Injury in COVID-19: Prevalence and Association with Clinical Outcomes in a Large U.S. Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with acute liver injury (ALI) manifested by increased liver enzymes in reports worldwide. Prevalence of liver injury and associated clinical characteristics are not well defined. We aim to identify the prevalence of and risk factors for development of COVID-19-associated ALI in a large cohort in the United States. APPROACH AND RESULTS: In this retrospective cohort study, all patients who underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing at three hospitals in the NewYork-Presbyterian network were assessed. Of 3,381 patients, 2,273 tested positive and had higher initial and peak alanine aminotransferase (ALT) than those who tested negative. ALI was categorized as mild if ALT was greater than the upper limit of normal (ULN) but <2 times ULN, moderate if ALT was between 2 and 5 times the ULN, and severe if ALT was >5 times the ULN. Among patients who tested positive, 45% had mild, 21% moderate, and 6.4% severe liver injury (SLI). In multivariable analysis, severe ALI was significantly associated with elevated inflammatory markers, including ferritin (odds ratio [OR], 2.40; P < 0.001) and interleukin-6 (OR, 1.45; P = 0.009). Patients with SLI had a more severe clinical course, including higher rates of intensive care unit admission (69%), intubation (65%), renal replacement therapy (RRT; 33%), and mortality (42%). In multivariable analysis, peak ALT was significantly associated with death or discharge to hospice (OR, 1.14; P = 0.044), controlling for age, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, intubation, and RRT. CONCLUSIONS: ALI is common in patients who test positive for SARS-CoV-2, but is most often mild. However, among the 6.4% of patients with SLI, a severe disease course should be anticipated.